中国天然气供需形势与展望

21世纪以来,中国常规天然气和致密气储量、产量的年增长率由两位百分数降至一位百分数,总体呈降低之势。预计中国天然气产量在2015年有达到1 340×108 m3的可能,如其商品率能达90%,则供应量有达到1 206×108 m3的可能。页岩气开采刚刚起步,在2015年可望有6×108 m3商品气投入供应。煤层气开采量,特别是利用量长期大幅度落后于预定指标,其生产量和利用量的统计存在缺陷;按目前的实际利用量增加趋势推算,2015年其商品气量有达到40×108 Nm3的可能。煤制气的开拓已取得许多新成果,从已建成的生产能力看,2015年有供应55×108 m3燃气的可能性。综上所述,2015年国内燃气供应总量可能为1310×108 m3,如按预测的当年消费量达2 310×108 m3计算,则2015年需进口天然气1 000×108 m3。从目前预计的管道气和LNG接收站的实际进口量看,尚有270×108~300×108 m3的缺口,需及时采取措施提前投产一批LNG接收站并增加从中亚进口的天然气数量。建议在"十三五"能源规划的基础性研究中,完善对实际可供应的燃气商品量的统计。综合分析的结论认为,经济体制改革进程是影响我国油气产业发展的关键因素。

Natural gas supply demand situation and prospect in China

Since the 21^st century, the reserves of conventional natural gas as well as tight gas in China have been decreasing and their annual production growth rates have been generally reduced from double digit to one digit number of percentage. It is predicted that natural gas production will possibly reach up to 134 billion m³ in 2015; and if the marketable rate is 90%, the gas supply volume will probably be 120.6 billion m3 in 2015. Since shale gas development just has started currently, about 0.6 billion m³ of the marketable shale gas will be added to gas supply in 2015. The CBM gas production especially such gas consumption has long been lagged behind the expected targets, and what′s more, flaws exist in their statistics; on this basis, it is assumed that the marketable CBM gas will be 4 billion Nm3 in 2015. With so many achievements made in the coal gas exploitation, it is forecasted that about 5.5 billion m³ coal gas will be added to gas supply in 2015. In total, the domestic fuel gas supply is roughly estimated to be 131 billion m³ in 2015; if the gas consumption in the year is presumably 231 billion m³, about 100 billion m³ gas will then be imported in 2015. From the presumable actual imports of pipeline gas and LNG terminals, there is still a gap of 27 – 30 billion m³ in 2015. Therefore, it is suggested that more LNG receiving terminals be put into production in advance and the increment of import gas be needed from Middle Asia. Also, it is proposed that the statistics be completed on the practical marketable fuel gas quantity in the fundamental study of energy planning in the National 13^th Five Year Plan. In conclusion, the economic system reform process is the key to the further development of oil and gas industry in China.