基于AHP-Fuzzy法的汉江流域水资源承载力评价与预测

水资源承载力作为评价地区水资源安全与否的一个基本度量，其理论与应用研究意义重大。根据DPSIR框架展开水资源承载力因子分析，得到一个4层递阶结构的指标初选框架，并构建了一套全面的水资源承载力指标体系。以汉江流域为例，采用层次分析-模糊综合评价法(AHP-Fuzzy)展开水资源承载力评价与预测。分析结果表明不调水情况下，江汉流域3级分区中，丹江口以上分区水资源承载力优于其他2分区;实施调水后，各分区水资源承载力受跨流域调水的影响而发生变化，均可认为已达到基本可承载状态。

Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on AHP-Fuzzy Method: A Case Study on Hanjiang River Basin

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a basic metric for the evaluation of regional water resource security. Research on the theory and application of WRCC is of great significance. Through the factor analysis of WRCC based on DPSIR(Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework, we obtained a frame to primarily select indexes of four-level hierarchical structure, and constructed a comprehensive index system of WRCC. With Hanjiang River Basin as a case study, we assessed and predicted the WRCC by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-fuzzy programming (Fuzzy) method. Results show that 1) in the absence of water transfer, the WRCC of the upper reaches of Danjiangkou is superior to the other two districts; 2) in the presence of water transfer, the WRCC of each district varies under the influence of inter-basin water transfer, and they can be considered as reaching a basically loadable state.