Testing sequential association: Estimating exact p values using sampled permutations.

Assigning p values to all transitions in a matrix based on their z scores is problematic on 2 counts: The z scores may not be normally distributed, and transitions are interconnected. Permutation tests, which require far fewer assumptions, are an attractive alternative to the standard asymptotic methods for assigning significance. Moreover, when asymptotic z scores are only somewhat above their critical value and sequences are short, often the exact probabilities of permutation tests are not less than .05. Log-linear and permutation methods may be used to winnow the set of transitions initially identified as significant even further. A computer program that performs these tests is available from the authors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)