针对热带飓风的风场、波浪和风暴潮的NOPP实时预报系统

介绍针对热带气旋的风场、波浪、风暴潮的NOPP（国家海洋舍作项目）安时预报系统。这个系统的低分辨率模式曾被用于2004年和2005年的飓风季节预测,国家飓风中心每6h在内部网上发布飓风路径、极限半径与特征浪高的预测值。这个预测系统通过输入来自H＊WIND的高精度初始风场数据采预测以后每半小时的风场预测数据。改进后的风场数据被用于追踪飓风路径以及驱动三阶的波浪模块和风暴潮模块。而波浪模块得出的辐射压力场则被耦合于飓风登陆时的海岸风暴潮住预测中。此系统正在采用低分辨率与高分辨率模式模拟2006年飓风季节情况。

REVIEW OF THE NOPP REAL- TIME FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR WINDS,WAVES AND STORM TIDES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

In this paper we present the NOPP(National Oceanographic Partnership Program) real time forecasting system for winds,waves and storm tides due to tropical cyclones.The NOPP real time forecasting system was operating in a semioperational mode during the 2004 & 2005 Hurricane seasons.On a six-hourly cycle threshold wind radii and significant wave height plots along the official National Hurricane Center forecast track were updated routinely and accessible through an internal website.The forecast system provided routinely wind fields every 30 minutes using high-resolution initial wind "snapshots" from H*WIND.These winds were advanced in space and time for five days along the official track and forced both a third-generation wave model and a storm tide model.Radiation stress fields were provided by the wave model and coupled to produce storm tide predictions along the coastline during landfalling hurricanes.The system is presently implemented in semi-(for the majority of the domain) and fully-operational(for portions of the domain) mode during the 2006 Hurricane season.