福岛核危机对日本能源战略的影响及启示

至本世纪前10年,核能已成为日本能源供应中不可或缺的重要因素,然而,2011年因"东日本大地震"引发的福岛核危机却动摇了日本继续发展核能的信心,不得不对现有的能源战略进行调整。福岛核危机对日本原来制定的能源战略产生了巨大影响,其中包括能源战略目标难以实现,加剧了对化石燃料的依赖;造成大量的电力缺口,总发电量减少了1/4,导致消费者用电成本急剧增加;短期内不得不增加液化天然气、原油、燃料油和煤炭等化石能源的进口量,加剧了日本能源安全的不确定性。为了缓解福岛核危机所造成的一系列负面影响并保障能源安全,日本政府重新制定了能源战略——重点集中在去核能化,去核能化是顺应民意、安抚民心,并防止核事故再次发生的根本性战略,是日本的必然选择;同时高度重视可再生能源的发展,可再生能源发电比例将由2010年的10%跃升至2030年的35%,总发电量将由2010年的1100×108kW.h提高到2030年的3000×108kW.h;大力实施节约能源战略,提出2030年电力消耗量在2010年的基础上节约1100×108kW.h,能源消耗量在2010年的基础上节约720×108L;另外,日本政府还对电力系统进行改革。结合我国的能源战略及核电发展现状,日本的能源战略调整给予我国的启示包括:要将核安全置于首要地位、加速可再生能源发展和坚持节约能源战略。

Impact of Fukushima Nuclear Accident on Japanese Energy Strategy and Implications

Up to the first ten years of the 21st century ,nuclear power had become the indispensable fac- tor in Japan＇s energy supply.However,the Fukushima nuclear crisis triggered by an earthquake in east Japan in 2011 has shaken Japan＇s confidence in keeping on developing nuclear power and the country has had to adjust its energy strategy.The Fukushima nuclear crisis has had a dramatic impact on Japan＇s previous energy strategy.Some aspects of the impact include the difficulty to achieve its original energy strategy,higher reliance on fossil fuels,a big power shortage following a 1/4 reduction in the country＇s total power output ,dramatically risen cost of power use on the consumer side ,and the necessity of raising imports of fossil energy sources such as LNG,crude oil,fuel oil and coal in the short term,which has in- creased the uncertainty of Japan＇s energy security.In order to alleviate a series of negative effects caused by the nuclear crisis and ensure energy security,the Japanese government has developed a new energy strategy,which is highlighted by a removal of nuclear power from the country＇s energy mix.The new ener- gy strategy is a fundamental strategy to avoid the recurrence of nuclear accidents as well as an act to conform to the public opinion and the choice Japan has to make.At the same time ,Japan pays great at- tention to the development of renewable energy sources.The share of power from renewable energy-based power generation will rise to 35% in 2030 from 10% in 2010 and total power production will increase from 1100×10^8kW＇h in 2010 to 3000×10^8kW.h in 2030.Japan is also implementing an energy saving strategy,aiming to reduce electric power consumption by 1100×10^8kW＇h from 2010 to 2030 and energy consumption by 720×10^8 SL.Moreover,the Japanese government will also reform the country＇s electric power system.Given the specifics of its energy strategy and nuclear power development,China can learn from Japan＇s adjustment to its energy strategy.The key points of the Japanese lesson include giving nuclear safety priority, speeding renewable energy development and adhering to an energy saving strategy.