连续航班延误与波及的贝叶斯网络分析

针对空运系统日益严重的航班延误，尝试将贝叶斯方法应用于航班数据分析，重点考虑同一飞机飞行连续航班的情况。借助Netica软件包，建立贝叶斯网络模型。通过贝叶斯网络推理进行连续航班延误波及分析，并用实际航班数据进行测试。结果表明，概率统计意义下,模型能够清晰反映连续航班延误原因分布、过站时间差分布和按时间段的延误波及情况。

Bayesian networks analysis for sequence flight delay and propagation

Concerning the increasingly serious flight delay of air transport system, this paper attempted to apply the Bayesian Method in the analysis of flight data. It paid much attention to the situation of the same plane in sequential flight. The Bayesian networks for this purpose were constructed using the Netica software package. The analysis of sequence flight delay and propagation was made by the Bayesian Network inference and tested by the real flight data. The result shows that the model based on probability statistics could reflect the delay reason distribution, the difference of turn around time distribution and delay propagation in different periods of sequential flights clearly.