基于时间序列分析的货运周转量预测

基于重庆市统计局的实际统计数据,通过对实际样本数据进行预处理,确认重庆水运货运周转量序列为平稳非白噪声序列。在此基础上,通过对1995-2009年重庆水运货运周转量的数据分析,利用时间序列分析方法建立了ARMA预测模型,结果显示该模型具有较好的预测效果,对重庆水路货物运输工作及水运的发展决策有一定的参考价值。

Transportation Freight Quantity Forecasting Based on Time Series Analysis

Based on the practical datum of statistics bureau in chongqing,the datum are pre-processed and the chongqing water transportation freight quantity series is considered to be steady non-white noise series.On this basis,through the 1995-2009 chongqing water transportation freight quantity of data analysis,we use time series analysis method to establish the ARMA forecasting model.The results show that the model has better prediction results,which can be used to have certain reference value for waterway transport of goods work and water transport development decision-making.