21世纪炼铁发展趋势及对中国高炉炼铁的挑战

20世纪钢铁工业得到极大的发展，世界钢产量从1900年2850万t增长至2000年8.43亿t。第一个快速增长时期出现在上世纪50年代到70年代中期，第二个快速增长时期从上世纪90年代开始至今。经济快速发展对钢铁产品需求的增长是钢铁生产的拉动力，技术进步是钢铁工业发展的推动力。预计21世纪世界钢产量将达到20亿t/年，铁产量可能超过13亿t/年。基于国内市场需求，中国钢铁工业产量保持在4～4.5亿t/年，2015年后铁的年产量有可能下降。中国炼铁将面临资源短缺、炼铁高炉结构不合理、能源过度消费和环境压力的挑战。中国钢铁工业必须是以国内需求为导向型的。中国炼铁工业健康发展取决于我们是否能够应对挑战。

The Trends of Ironmaking Industry and Challenges to Chinese Blast Furnace Ironmaking in the 21st Century

As an era of tremendous growth of steel industry, the world annual steel production had been increasing from 28.5 million tons in 1900 to 843 million tons in 2000. The first period of rapid growth appeared from mid of 1950’s to mid of 1970’s, and the second one has started from the end of 1990’s and has been continuing so far. The increasing demand for steel product s resulted from rapid economy growth has been the boosting force for iron and steel production, and technological progresses have been the driving force for the development of steel industry. It is expected that in the 21st century the annual world steel production may hit a target of 2 billion tons and the annual world iron production may surpass 113 billion tons. The Chinese steel industry may keep an annual capacity of 400～450 million tons based on the requirement of domestic market, and the annual iron production might be declining after 2015. The challenges to Chinese ironmaking industry will be the insufficiency of natural resources, the unreasonable structure of blast furnace ironmaking, the over2consumption of energy and the heavy impact on global environment . Chinese steel industry must be domestic demand oriented. The healthy development of Chinese ironmaking industry depends on how we could deal with these challenges.