| 改进GM（1，1）残差修正模型在光伏发电量短期预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 贺琳,李英姿.改进GM（1，1）残差修正模型在光伏发电量短期预测中的应用[J].北京建筑工程学院学报,2008,24(4):61-65. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贺琳 李英姿 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京建筑工程学院电气与信息工程学院,北京,100044 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用改进的GM（1，1）残差修正模型建立光伏发电量预测模型，从理论发电量和实际发电量两方面对5．6kW太阳能光伏发电系统的发电量进行预测．通过对比GM（1，1）模型和改进的GM（1，1）残差修正模型的预测结果，证明采用改进的GM（1，1）残差修正模型预测短期太阳能光伏发电量能够取得更好的预测效果．
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 改进的GM(1 1)残差修正模型 光伏发电 发电量预测 |
Short-Term Forecasting for Photovoltaic Power System Based on Advanced Residual Error Modified GM(1,1)Model |
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| He Lin,Li Yingzi.Short-Term Forecasting for Photovoltaic Power System Based on Advanced Residual Error Modified GM(1,1)Model[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Civil Engineering and Architecture,2008,24(4):61-65. |
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| Authors: | He Lin Li Yingzi |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Electricity and Information Engineering, BUCEA Beijing 100044) |
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| Abstract: | An advanced residual error modified model based on GM（1, 1） is studied and applied to 5.6 kW photovoltaic power system forecasting, including observed value and theoretical value. By comparing two forecasting models, it is shown that the advanced residual error modified model based on GM （1, 1 ） is more effictive than other models for forecasting short-term photovoltaic power generation. |
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| Keywords: | grey theory advanced residual error modified models based on GM （1 1 ） photovoltaic power systems power generation forecasting |
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