灰色模型在西藏需水量预测分析中的应用

根据西藏地区1998年—2002年的用水情况,采用灰色模型对其2010年和2020年的需水量进行了预测,并分析了其不同时期的需水情况。结果表明,随着经济的发展,全区的用水量仍会较快增长,但增长速度渐缓,并逐步趋于稳定;用水部门的需水结构也将发生变化,农村生活用水比例增加、农业用水比例降低。这一研究成果有助于西藏地区采取合理的用水规划措施,减少成本开支。

Application of Gray Model to Prediction of Water Demand in Tibet

Based on the water used from 1998 to 2002 in Tibet,gray model was used to predict its water demand in 2010 and 2020,and analyze its water requirement in different periods.The results show that with the economic development,the region's water consumption still relatively increases fast,but the increasing rate is gradually slow and up to the basic steady level.The water demand structure of the water sectors will be changed,the proportion of rural domestic water will be increased,and the proportion of agricult...