基于多维大数据的区域电力景气预警体系构建及应用

当前我国经济已经由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,资源环境硬约束日益加强,能源电力经济关系发生了深刻变化,现有单线条、单维度的预测预警方法已不能满足发展需要。大数据技术的快速发展为新形势下全方位、多尺度衡量能源电力发展情况、实现精准预测预警提供了技术支撑,但大数据时代下关键数据常常淹没在海量的背景信息中,亟需开展大数据驱动下的新型智能能源经济多尺度预测预警关键技术研究。本文在分析阐述了常用的电力景气指数及预警方法的基础上,提出了基于多维大数据的区域电力景气预警框架体系和建模方法,研究构建了涵盖用电景气指数、用户用电意愿指数、电力需求指数和电力行业景气指数的区域电力景气指数指标体系,并以河南省为例进行了应用分析,实现了对电力发展和景气情况的精准预警,对于研究分析能源电力经济关系、监测区域经济和电力运行情况具有重要意义。

Construction and Application of Regional Electric Prosperity Warning System based on Multidimensional Big Data

In order to improve scientificity and accuracy of regional economy, electric power prosperity detection warning under the new normal economic development, this article researched on construction and application of regional electric prosperity warning system based on multidimensional big data. On top of stating and analyzing the traditional method of electric power prosperity index and warning system, the theoretical framework and modeling of regional electric power prosperity warning system based on multi-dimensional big data such as economy, energy, electricity, and environment are proposed and constructed. Developed regional electric power prosperity index indicator system which includes electricity usage prosperity index, customer usage willing index, electricity demand index, and electricity industry prosperity index, and stated processing scheme and application method of indexes. In addition, validated application analysis based on multidimensional big data of Henan province, established electricity industry warning signals for Henan province, and realized accurate forecasting on electricity development and prosperity status. The research results have referential significance on government departments, industrial companies, and public monitoring regional economic and electric power operation status, developing research analysis on relationship between energy electricity and economy.