基于雪岭云杉树轮的阿克苏河干流冬季径流重建

基于阿克苏河上游高山区采集的雪岭云杉树轮样芯构建了雪岭云杉树轮宽度年表,结合阿克苏河干流径流数据解析了雪岭云杉长期生长与阿克苏河干流径流关系,并重建了阿克苏河干流1813—2015年冬季径流序列。结果表明:利用雪岭云杉树轮宽度年表重建的阿克苏河干流1813—2015年冬季径流序列模拟值与实测值吻合度较高,重建径流序列稳定可靠;1813—2015年阿克苏河干流冬季多年平均流量为82.19 m~3/s,共出现5次持续丰水期和3次持续枯水期,最长的枯水段持续17年(1943—1959年);阿克苏河干流冬季径流变化存在51 a、29 a、16 a周期,第一主周期为51 a。

Reconstruction of Aksu River main stream winter runoff based on tree ring chronology of Picea schrenkiana

Tree ring width chronology of Picea schrenkiana is constructed based on the cores collected from alpine forest in Aksu River upper reaches. Combined with the data of Aksu River main stream runoff, the relationship between the long-term growth of Picea schrenkiana and Aksu River main stream runoff is analyzed and the winter runoff of Aksu River in 1813-2015 is reconstructed. The results show that: the simulated data of reconstructed Aksu River main stream winter runoff in 1813-2015 using tree ring chronology of Picea schrenkiana is rather consistent with the predicted data. The reconstructed sequence is stable and reliable; During 1813-2015, the average winter runoff of the Aksu River main stream was 82.19 m³/s. There were five high flow periods and three low flow periods, in which the longest low flow period lasted 17 a(1943-1959); Aksu River main stream winter runoff has a periodic variation of 51 a, 29 a and 16 a. The 51 a is the first main cycle of the runoff.