考虑多参数影响的风电场多状态出力概率性评估

大规模风电并网会对电力系统的可靠性带来严峻挑战，其出力的随机性也会对电力系统可靠性评估带来难题。为了准确地对风电场出力进行评估，结合风速的随机性，考虑了风电机组的故障、降额和随机投产状态以及风速分布的威布尔参数对风电场出力的影响，建立了风电场多状态出力的可靠性模型；基于蒙特卡洛法对风电场的有功出力进行了概率性评估，并分析了不同状态数、不同降额概率、故障停运概率、随机投产率及不同的风速分布威布尔尺度参数和形状参数等对评估结果的影响。仿真结果表明，所建模型切实可行，能有效地对风电场出力进行评估。

Probabilistic Assessment of Multi-State Output of Wind Farms Considering the Effects of Multi-Parameters

Large-scale wind power integration with power grids brings severe challenges to the reliability of power system, and the randomness of wind power output also creates difficulties to the reliability evaluation of power system..In order to accurately evaluate the wind farm output, considering wind speed randomness, this paper takes into account effects of wind turbine faults, derating status, stochastic production status and Weibull parameters of wind speed distribution on the output of the wind farm before the reliability model of multi-state output of the wind farm is established. Based on Monte Carlo method, the probabilistic evaluation of active power output is carried out, and the effects of different status numbers, different derating probabilities, failure outage probability, stochastic production rate and different wind speed parameters such as scale and shape parameters on the evaluation results are analyzed. The simulation results show that the model is feasible and can effectively evaluate the wind farm output.