高心墙堆石坝施工期变形时空预测模型研究

针对高心墙堆石坝变形监测断面有限，而传统的单点变形预测模型难以有效反映坝体的整体变形趋势，通过采用分离型时空模型的构建方式，以及基于物理成因分析的单点变形拟合和空间拓展的思路，来构建施工期变形时空预测模型能够克服单点序列模型的某些缺点。本文基于现有的粗粒土变形计算理论，推导并建立坝体垂直、水平变形单点物理成因模型，在单点模型的基础上采用克里金空间插值技术进行空间拓展，构建了高心墙堆石坝变形时空预测模型。经瀑布沟高心墙堆石坝原观变形分析表明，垂直和水平位移物理成因模型能较好地模拟和反映测点变形趋势，实现了基于监测序列的高心墙堆石坝整体变形的三维预测，较好地描述了大坝三维变形趋势，具有较高的精度以及工程应用和推广价值。

Research on the Prediction Model of Deformation of High Core Rockfill Dam During Construction Period

In the situation that deformation monitoring section of high rockfill dam is limited, and the traditional single point deformation prediction model is difficult to reflect the overall trend of dam deformation effectively, the separation space-time deformation prediction model constructed by single-point sequence fitting and spatial expansion during construction can overcome some drawbacks of single point series models. The vertical and horizontal single point deformation model of physical causes is derived and established based on the existing theory of coarse grained soil deformation calculation, and then the space-time deformation prediction model of high rockfill dam is constructed by using kriging technique for spatial expansion based on single point model. The primary deformation analysis results of Pubugou high rockfill dam show that the vertical and horizontal deformation model of physical causes can simulate and reflect the measuring point distortion tendency well, which realizes three dimensional prediction according to the monitoring sequence of the whole deformation of high core rockfill dam, describes the dam three dimensional distortion tendency well and has the high precision as well as the project application and the promoted value.