海底管道侧向屈曲概率化分析方法

介绍海底管道侧向屈曲概率化分析的理论基础和方法，编制基于蒙特卡罗分析方法的侧向屈曲模式计算程序，并结合有限元分析，实现对可接受虚拟锚固间距的筛选，形成海底管道侧向屈曲控制的基础。给出基于概率化方法的侧向屈曲分析实例，该方法已在工程实际项目中成功应用，所得结论对深水高温高压海底管道设计与建设具有指导意义。

Probabilistic Analysis of Subsea Pipeline Lateral Buckling

The theoretical basis and method of the probabilistic analysis of subsea pipeline lateral buckling is introduced, the calculation program of the lateral buckling mode is compiled based on Monte Carlo analysis method, and combined with the finite element analysis, the screening of the acceptable virtual anchorage spacing is realized, forming the basis for the control of the submarine pipeline lateral buckling. An example of lateral buckling analysis based on the probabilistic method is given, and this method is successfully applied in real projects. The conclusions are of guiding significance for the design and construction of deepwater high temperature and high pressure subsea pipeline.