| 电力中长期负荷模糊优选组合预测方法的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 何焱,黄静. 电力中长期负荷模糊优选组合预测方法的研究[J]. 四川电力技术, 2011, 34(5): 38-42,53 |
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| 作者姓名： | 何焱 黄静 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西南电力设计院,四川成都,610021
2. 四川大学电气信息学院,四川成都,610065 |
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| 摘 要： | 传统中长期电力负荷组合预测方法在确定权系数时,由于没能充分考虑各单一预测模型拟合值与历史实际值之间的多种误差信息,而使预测结果不够理想.为此,选取多种误差作为评价单一模型优劣的指标,引入多目标系统模糊优选理论,结合熵权法客观分配各种误差指标的权重,在全面考虑多种误差信息的情况下,通过求取各单一模型预测精度对“优”的隶属...
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| 关 键 词： | 中长期负荷 组合预测 多误差指标 熵权法 模糊优选 |
Research on Fuzzy Optimized Combination Method for Middle and Long Term Load Forecasting |
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| He Yan Huang Jing. Research on Fuzzy Optimized Combination Method for Middle and Long Term Load Forecasting[J]. Sichuan Electric Power Technology, 2011, 34(5): 38-42,53 |
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| Authors: | He Yan Huang Jing |
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| Affiliation: | He Yan Huang Jing |
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| Abstract: | Because the forecasting results and multiple estimation errors for single forecasting methods have not been considered deeply in traditional combination forecasting methods of middle and long term power load,the forecasting results can not meet the requirements.Therefore,multiple errors are used to be the measuring index for single forecasting method and the multiple objectives fuzzy optimization theory is introduced to determine the combination method.The entropy weight method is used to distribute the wei... |
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| Keywords: | middle and long term load combination forecasting multiple error index entropy weight method fuzzy optimization |
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