Understanding the diffusion of mobile digital content: a growth curve modelling approach

While the sales of mobile digital content have been growing exponentially, the understanding of its diffusion remains limited in the literature. In this study, we set out to enrich this understanding using a growth curve modelling approach. We applied four widely used growth curve models of innovation diffusion and compared their performance in explaining the diffusion of mobile digital content empirically. Analysis based on the data collected on a product adopted by nearly 30 million mobile phone users over a 149-week period in 31 regions in China revealed that the Gompertz model was the most effective model in depicting the diffusion process, with more than 99 % of the variance explained. Moreover, we found that population, urbanization, education level, and mobile technology usage were significant determinants of various parameters such as the diffusion rate and inflection point of the diffusion process, respectively. Implications for both researchers and practitioners are discussed.