| Novel grey forecast model and its application |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁洪发 舒双焰 段献忠 |
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| 作者单位： | School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering，Huazhong University of Science and Technology，Wuhan 430074，China，School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering，Huazhong University of Science and Technology，Wuhan 430074，China，School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering，Huazhong University of Science and Technology，Wuhan 430074，China |
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| 摘 要： | The advancement of grey system theory provides an effective analytic tool for power system load forecast. All kinds of presently available grey forecast models can be well used to deal with the short-term load forecast. However, they make big errors for medium or long-term load forecasts, and the load that does not satisfy the approximate exponential increasing law in particular. A novel grey forecast model that is capable of distinguishing the increasing law of load is adopted to forecast electric power consumption (EPC) of Shanghai. The results show that this model can be used to greatly improve the forecast precision of EPC for a secondary industry or the whole society.
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Novel grey forecast model and its application |
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| DING Hong-fa,SHU Shuang-yan,DUAN Xian-zhong.Novel grey forecast model and its application[J].Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,2003,10(3). |
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| Authors: | DING Hong-fa SHU Shuang-yan DUAN Xian-zhong |
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| Affiliation: | School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | The advancement of grey system theory provides an effective analytic tool for power system load forecast. All kinds of presently available grey forecast models can be well used to deal with the short-term load forecast. However, they make big errors for medium or long-term load forecasts, and the load that does not satisfy the approximate exponential increasing law in particular. A novel grey forecast model that is capable of distinguishing the increasing law of load is adopted to forecast electric power consumption (EPC) of Shanghai. The results show that this model can be used to greatly improve the forecast precision of EPC for a secondary industry or the whole society. |
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| Keywords: | grey model load forecast electric power consumption |
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