Probabilistic evaluation of lateral extent of soil liquefaction under earthquake loading

A Monte Carlo simulation method for calculating the probability of soil liquefaction of a finite area in which the ground motion is propagated upward from the bedrock through the soil layers is presented. The vertical propagation of the ground motion through the soil layers is analyzed using random vibration analysis. To account for the variability of soil properties with depth, the soil deposit is divided into layers. Within each layer the horizontal statistical correlation of the undrained cyclic shearing strength against liquefaction is taken into consideration by describing it as a two-dimensional homogeneous random field. The method computes the probability of liquefaction spreading over a specified area under a given earthquake loading considering the effects of spatial correlation of soil properties.