开发商参与下的多阶段廉租房建设投资决策方法

针对开发商参与下的多阶段廉租房建设成本和合同期决策问题，采用期权博弈思想建立投资决策模型。基于廉租房建设项目所具有的期权博弈特征，提出了针对期权涉及的价值、收益、成本的研究假设；在多阶段二叉树模型决策路径基础上，分别针对政府和开发商构建了效用函数、成本投入模型和合同期决策模型，通过推导得到了建设成本、合同期等相关决策因素对于开发协议的影响，得到的合同期与各影响因素之间的数量关系表明:虽然合同期被缩短，但是开发商利用成长期权仍能保证廉租房的建设质量；通过案例分析验证了模型在廉租房协议制定和投资决策过程中的有效性。

Multi-stage Decision-making Method for Developers-involved Low-rent Housing Construction Investment

Aiming at the decision of the multi-stage low-rent housing construction cost and the contract period with developers involved，an investment decision-making model based on option game theory is built. Based on the option game features of low-rent housing construction projects，research hypotheses on value，benefits，costs for the options are given. On the basis of the decision-making path of a multi-stage binary tree model，respectively for the government and developers，utility functions，cost-input models and decision-making models of the contract period are built. The influences given by construction cost，contract period and other relevant decision-making factors on the development agreement are derived，with the quantitative relationship between the contract period and its influencing factors. It indicates that by the use of growth options in the shortened contract period， developers can still ensure the quality of low-rent housing construction. Validity of the model in the low-rent housing agreement and the investment decision-making process is verified by a case analysis.