基于灰色模型的软土路基沉降预测及误差分析

针对高速公路软基处理断面的工后沉降预测问题，系统介绍了R．Usher灰色模型预测方法，并探讨了计算起始时间和恒载时间的长短对推算结果的影响。研究结果表明，选择较长的恒载期的观测数据，且起始时间点越接近恒载阶段的末端，预测误差越小。以某高速公路21个软基处理断面的实测沉降资料为基础，应用R．Usher灰色模型进行了工后沉降预测误差分析，探讨了该方法对于不同处理方式软土路基的适用性和推测精度。研究表明，R．Usher灰色模型预测方法的推算结果与实测值相比偏大，该方法较适用于塑料排水板欠载预压处理断面的工后沉降推算，而对于搅拌桩处理断面而言，其推算结果可能明显偏大。

Prediction and Error Analysis of Post-construction Settlement for Soft Soil Embankment Using the R.Usher Gray Model

The R. Usher gray model predictive method is introduced systematically with the post-construction settlement for soft soil embankment of the express highway. The influence of the length of starting period and dead-load period on the prediction results is demonstrated. It can be concluded that the predictive error is slight if the observation data of long dead-load period is chosen. The starting period is near the terminal dead - load period. The R. Usher gray model is applied in error analysis of post-construction settlement prediction based on the actual measure results of 21 cross-sections. The applicability and predictive precise of the method for soft soil formation with different treatments are discussed. The research presented that the predictive result by the R. Usher gray model is larger than actual measure result. The method introduced in this paper is adapted to predict the post-construction settlement of the cross-sections which are under load and prepressing with plastic drainage plate. The predictive results would be larger if it is used in mixing pile.