泉水流量预测模型的优化

针对建立岩溶泉水流量预测模型所存在的问题，通过引入降水量主影响年为自变量因子，用主影响年上1a和下1a的降水量为修正因子，并用变量因子的指数大小间接反映其权重及影响度，有效提高了模型的拟合及预测精度。通过实例进行了残差平方和、平均相对误差及相关指数的计算和比较。

Optinization Prediction Model of Spring Water Discharge

To solve problems existed in spring water discharge pr ediction model establishment,take the main influence precipitation year as a ind ependent variable, the prebously and subsequently precipitation as the reverse f actors, and the index of the variables can be used to value their weights and in fluence levels. As a result the accuracy of prediction is improved effectually. For the calcultion of the total sum of squares deviation, the relative errors, t he correlation coefficient,and for making comparisen between them, an example is introduced in the paprer.