水电工程施工疲劳风险分析与量化评价研究

为量化评估作业疲劳风险,提高施工作业安全水平,提出基于云模型改进的水电工程施工疲劳风险模糊综合评价方法。在评价过程中,利用云模型的3个数字特征Ex(期望)、En(熵),He(超熵)表征常规模糊综合评判法中的综合评判矩阵和权重矩阵;运用正态云模型代替模糊隶属度函数,计算疲劳风险发生的可能性等级;综合运用正向云及逆向云,可视化评价研究结果。用所建立的方法对某水电工程高边坡作业疲劳风险进行评估,结果表明,该水电工程的疲劳风险发生的可能性为5.419,处于“一般”等级,但明显偏向于风险“较大”等级。该评价方法综合考虑风险评估的随机性、模糊性及评价主体的主观性,为客观测量和及时预防水电施工作业疲劳风险提供一种行之有效的新方法。

Analysis and Quantitative Evaluation of Fatigue Risk in Hydropower Project Construction

In the aim of quantifying the evaluation of construction fatigue risk and improving construction safety , a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method improved by cloud model was proposed to assess the construction fatigue risk of high-risk operationsin hydropower project .Three digital features Ex, En, and He were taken to substitute the com-prehensive evaluation matrix and the weight matrix in traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method .Fuzzy membership function was substituted by normal cloud model to calculate the ratings of risk possibility .The evalua-tion result was visualized by using forward and reverses clouds together .The method was applied to the evaluation of fatigue risk of high slope operations in a hydropower project .Results showed that the fatigue risk level of high slope operations is 5.419, which belongs to moderate risk but obviously closer to big risk .The randomness, fuzziness and subjectivity of the evaluation body are comprehensively considered by using this method .