Estimating Small Area Demand for Water: A New Methodology

The estimation of water demand is fundamental to effective water resource management. Water supply is measured at district level but true demand is not, and therefore studies of water-pricing relations are limited and mass-balance based assessment of leakage, illegal use, meter inaccuracies etc., are compromised. This paper describes the value and limitations of existing geodemographic methods, and an alternative technique widely used in other fields, microsimulation, is proposed. It is shown that geographic stability in demand relations is not found in all consumer commodities and cannot be assumed for water. Sampled data for Leeds, West Yorkshire, are used to construct a microsimulation model, and the results of that model are applied to the city of Leeds at ward level. Applicability is also demonstrated at enumeration district level.