电力发展预测应尊重规律

我国今年夏季出现了多年不见的严重电力短缺,其重要原因之一是电力发展预测背离经济社会和电力发展的规律。本文根据国外电力发展的情况和我国未来经济发展与电力消费增长的展望,认为我国未来20年间,GDP将可能保持超过8%的年均增长速度,电力弹性系数将可能保持年均超过1的水平。

Electricity Consumption Forecast should Obey Objective Law

China suffered from serious power shortage this summer. One of the major reasons is that the electricity consumption forecast was incorrect. Based on the investigation of economic and power developments in China and other countries as well as some general economic patterns, this article concludes that it is highly likely that in the next twenty years China’s GDP would maintain a higher than 8% average annual growth rate and electricity consumption elasticity would keep an average level of above 1. Power development planers must seriously consider this possibility in their decision making.