中国可持续发展能源暨碳排放情景研究

可持续发展已经成为全球社会经济发展的目标,为了回答对于中国这样一个人口众多的发展中国家,如何以较低的能源消费支持较高的经济发展等政府非常关注的问题,本项研究采用了情景分析的方法,探索中国实现社会经济可持续发展的可能性和途径,对产业部门、建筑物、交通运输部门提高能源效率的潜力、节能技术的选择、政策执行力度等问题进行了研究和分析,得出了在不同情景下,2020年中国能源需求总量将达23～31亿tce的结论,并在此基础上提出了保证能源供应、促进能源结构调整、提高能源效率的技术措施和政策措施。

Study on the Sustainable Energy Development and Carbon Emission Scenarios Analysis in China

The sustainable development has already become a target of global s ocial economy development. In order to answer the questions that China, being su ch a developing country with densely populated, how to facilitate relative high economy growth rate with fairly low energy consumption, which is concerned most by China's government, this project has explored the possibility and path of Chi na to realize the social economy sustainable development by using the scenarios analysis. It studies and analyzes the issues such as improvement of energy effic iency potentials of industrial, building and transport sectors, energy efficienc y technology options and policy enforcement. It concludes that the total energy demand will be 2.3～ 3.1 billion tce in 2020 under the different scenarios. Base d on its conclusion, it puts forward the technical and policy measures of assuri ng energy supply, promoting energy structure adjustment, and improving energy ef ficiency.