含光伏电站的电力系统运行风险评估

因光伏电站发电具有随机性和不稳定性,并网后可能会带来电网运行风险的问题,且光伏电站的不同运行配置也会给发输电系统带来不同的影响,提出一种基于非序贯蒙特卡罗的风险评估方法对光伏电站接入电网后造成的运行风险进行准确评估和分析. 首先,利用非序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法对太阳光辐照度分布区间进行模拟,建立了光伏电站随机输出模型,然后对整个系统的元件运行状态和光伏电站出力进行随机抽样,进行交直流潮流计算. 其次,结合风险理论,对光伏电站并网运行状态下设定的风险指标进行计算. 最后,以IEEE-RTS24节点系统为例,验证该评估方法的可靠性和可行性.

Operation Risk Assessment of Power System with Photovoltaic Power Stations

With the randomness and instability of the supply of photovoltaic power station,power grid is likely to have the problem of operational risk when connected to it,and different operations and configurations of the photovoltaic power station also have different influences on the power system. Therefore the paper presents a risk assessment method based on non-sequential Monte Carlo method to perform accurate assessment and analyze the operation risk of the photovoltaic power station on the power system. Firstly,non-sequential Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the solar irradiance distribution and establish the stochastic output model of photovoltaic power station. Then random sampling of the operating states of the whole system and output of the photovoltaic power station are carried out and the AC/DC power flow calculation is carried out and the risk index of power system with photovoltaic power stations is calculated on the basis of the risk theory. Finally,the IEEE-RTS24 system is simulated to verify the reliability and feasibility of the method.