汾河水库上游年径流演变趋势分析

应用Kendall秩次相关法、游程分析法和自相关分析法,研究了汾河水库上游半个世纪以来年径流的演变趋势。结果表明:①年径流量总体呈下降趋势,但在20世纪70年代以前的演变趋势并不明显;②各时段间的转折点跳跃均不显著;③年径流系列的相依性并不明显;④20世纪70年代以后年径流量呈减少趋势的原因与年降水量的变化无关。

Annual Runoff Change in the Upper Reaches of Fenhe River Reservoir

With the methods of Kendall correlation,process analysis and correlation analysis,the evolution trend of the runoff in the upper reaches for 50 years of Fenhe River Reservoir has been studied since half a century.The results show that the flow has overall downward trend,while it is not apparent before the 1970’s;it is also as same as the turning point in each period of time between jumps;the dependencies of annual runoff series are not obvious;the main reason which leads to the annual runoff decreasing after 1970’s is unrelated to the annual precipitation.