油田不同趋势产油量的灰色拓扑预测

针对常规预测方法难于描述产油量波动细节的难题,应用灰色系统理论,建立了不同趋势产油量的灰色拓扑预测模型,介绍了中国东部某油田不同趋势产油量的灰色拓扑预测过程,准确预测了未来产油量变化的曲线形态.研究结果表明,灰色拓扑预测模型适用于波动型油田的产油量预测,具有很高的预测精度.建立模型之前须确定产油量的变化趋势、在某些周期时间点上的特殊取值方式、连续增长或递减的时限等基本规律.建立模型选用数据的生产时间长度一般应为预测时间长度的2倍左右为宜.

Grey topology prediction of oil production in different trends in oilfields

In view of the difficulty of describing the undulation detail of oil production by general prediction methods, grey topology prediction models of the oil production in different trends were established in this paper based on grey system theory. The process of the grey topology prediction of oil production in different trends in some oilfields in east China was introduced and the fluctuation shape of the future oil production curve was predicted accurately. The research suggests that the grey topology predic...