船舶上层建筑舱室振动灰色预测

基于灰色系统理论，以5618箱集装箱船为母型船，利用灰关联分析法．分别确定了影响船舶上层建筑甲板平均振动和各甲板舱室振动的主要因素，采用非等间隔GM（1，1）建模的方法，分别建立上层建筑甲板平均振动模型和各甲板舱室相对于甲板平均振动的差值的模型，通过将两个模型的预测值求和来得到最终的上层建筑舱室振动预测值。应用此模型对4100箱集装箱船上层建筑舱室振动进行了预测，预测结果显示：用灰色预测方法对复杂的船舶上层建筑舱室的振动进行预测是可行的，不仅能考虑多个因素的影响．而且具有要求的样本少、预测快、精度较高等优点．尤其是在船舶开发设计的初期，较其它方法具有明显的优越性。

Grey prediction of the ship''''s superstructure cabins'''' vibration

Based on the grey system theory,taking 5618TEU as the originated model,this article uses grey relation analytical method to separately confirms the main ingredients which influence the decks' average vibration of the superstructure of the ship and the cabins' vibration of each deck.Afterwards,using the modeling method of non-equal interval GM(1,1),the decks' average vibration model of the superstructure and the vibration' difference model of the cabins relative to the decks' average vibration are separately established.By adding the predicting values of the two kinds of model,the final predicting values of the superstructure cabins' vibration are gained.These models are applied to predict the vibration of 4100TEU's superstructure cabins,the result of which shows that,it is feasible to predict the vibration of ships' superstructure cabins using grey prediction method,which not only considers more ingredients' influences,but also possesses some merits like fewer stylebooks,quicker predict,higher precision and so on.Especially during the initial period of the ships' exploitation and design,this method gains obvious advantage over others.