水库预泄调度风险指标及方案优选模型的研究

水库预泄调度是水库防洪调度的重要方式之一，它可以提高水库防洪能力。为此，针对西大洋水库的具体特点，拟定了可能的预泄调度方案，建立了水库预泄调度多目标风险指标体系及方案优选模型，并进行了实际预泄调度方案优选的研究。结果表明：对于10年一遇的洪水，可采用200m^3／s进行72h的预泄，或者采用300m^3／s进行24h或12h的预泄；而对于20年一遇的洪水，可采用200m^3／s进行72h的预泄。研究为西大洋水库预泄调度方案的建立提供了可靠的依据。

Study on Risk Indexes on Flood Pre-discharge Dispatching of Reservoir and the Optimal Selection Model of Alternatives

The flood pre-discharge dispatching of reservoir is one of important ways of flood control dispatching, which can enhance flood control capability of reservoir. This paper studies out a group of possible pre-discharge dispatching alternatives under the consideration of the characteristics of Xidayang Reservoir and establishes a multi-objectlve risk index system and a alternative optimization model. Meanwhile the study on actual pre-discharge dispatching alternative optimization was conducted. The results showed that for the 10-year return period flood, two alternatives are adopted, that is, predischarge with 200 m^3/s in 72 h or pre-discharge with 300 m^3/s in 24h or 12 h; but for 20-year return period flood, alternative is flood pre-discharge with 200 m^3/s in 72 h. All these results provide reliable basis for the establishment of flood pre-discharge dispatching alternatives of Xidayang Reservoir.