Exploration of the land potential for the production of biomass for energy in the Netherlands

The energy potential for energy crops and biomass residues in the Netherlands is assessed. The analysis explores the possible use of land for biomass production in the future. Various government memorandums and analyses of the expected future land use in various sectors have served as the basis for the assessment of the supply of and the demand for land in the future. In this study the potential supply of agricultural land is based on expected productivity increments in agriculture and assumptions with respect to the future demand for agricultural products. Various future claims for infrastructure, forestry, urban areas and nature are subtracted from the expected supply. The net projected supply of land ranges from zero to 52 000 ha in 2000 to 110 000-250 000 ha in 2015. The supply of agricultural land depends however on a number of supra-national factors, such as the European agricultural policy, world market developments and the agricultural production in the countries in Eastern Europe. Uncertainties remain, therefore, and the projected supply of agricultural land should be considered as a possible scenario based on current trends. If the calculated land potential is used for energy crops like miscanthus and short rotation coppice, this land could contribute 0-10 PJ in 2000 and 27-59 PJ in 2015. Secondary biomass yields, such as those from forestry, agricultural residues, wood from prunings, etc., could contribute a further 34 PJ in 2000, decreasing to approximately 28 PJ in 2015. Taken together these potentials could satisfy 1-1.5% of the energy requirements of the Netherlands in 2000 and 1.5-2.5% in 2015, provided that energy farming is an economically feasible activity for farmers.