基于发展趋势和认知程度的区间灰数预测

以GM(1,1)模型为代表的灰色预测模型实际上是对白数的建模和预测,而不是对区间灰数的建模和预测.发展趋势和认知程度两个维度可以很好地描述区间灰数序列,对此,可先将区间灰数序列转化成相应的发展趋势序列和认知程度,然后对区间灰数序列进行预测.这样,既避免了区间灰数预测过程中的灰数运算问题,又充分利用了区间灰数序列自身所包含的信息.通过具体实例验证了所建模型的有效性.

Prediction Model for Interval Grey Number Based on Trend and Cognition

In fact the grey prediction models such as GM(1,1) deal with the white number sequence rather than grey number
sequence. Meanwhile, interval grey number is very important in grey system. The trend and cognition of the interval grey number sequence are defined. An interval grey number sequence is transferred into the trend and cognition of interval grey number sequence, and then the interval grey number sequence is predicted with them, which can avoid the calculation of interval grey number and fully use the information embedded in the grey sequence. Finally, an example is given to show the effectiveness of the model.