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Sensitivity Analysis for Hydraulic Models |
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| Authors: | Jim W. Hall Shawn A. Boyce Yueling Wang Richard J. Dawson Stefano Tarantola Andrea Saltelli |
| Affiliation: | 1Professor, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Cassie Building, Newcastle Univ., NE1 7RU, U.K. (corresponding author). E-mail: jim.hall@ncl.ac.uk 2Hydrologist, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, Husbands, Barbados. E-mail: sboyce@cimh.edu.bb 3Ph.D. Student, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Cassie Building, Newcastle Univ., NE1 7RU, U.K. E-mail: yueling.wang@newcastle.ac.uk 4Research Fellow, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Cassie Building, Newcastle Univ., NE1 7RU, U.K. E-mail: richard.dawson@ncl.ac.uk 5Scientific Functionnaire, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi, 1, 21020 Ispra (VA), Italy. E-mail: stefano.tarantola@jrc.it 6Head of Unit, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi, 1, 21020 Ispra (VA), Italy. E-mail: andrea.saltelli@jrc.it |
| Abstract: | Sensitivity analysis is well recognized as being an important aspect of the responsible use of hydraulic models. This paper reviews a range of methods for sensitivity analysis. Two applications, one to a simple pipe bend example and the second to an advanced Shallow Water Equation solver, illustrate the deficiencies of standardized regression coefficients in the context of functionally nonlinear models. Derivatives and other local methods of sensitivity analysis are shown to give an incomplete picture of model response over the range of variability in the model inputs. The use of global variance-based sensitivity analysis is shown to be more general in its applicability and in its capacity to reflect nonlinear processes and the effects of interactions among variables. |
| Keywords: | Hydraulic models Sensitivity analysis Variance analysis Regression analysis Uncertainty principles |