| 福建省电网中长期水文预报系统设计与开发 |
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| 引用本文： | 张世钦,张俊,程春田,申建建.福建省电网中长期水文预报系统设计与开发[J].水电能源科学,2008,26(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张世钦 张俊 程春田 申建建 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建电力调度通信中心,福建,福州,350003
2. 大连理工大学,土木水利学院,辽宁,大连,116024 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目，高校博士点基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用Java技术平台,采用双机群集数据库系统(Orade 10g)成功设计并开发了基于Web的福建省电网中长期水文预报系统.将长期预报和中期预报分离,前者采用多种数理统计模型,以月或旬为预报时段提供未来1 a的径流预报及相关的频率预报;后者采用考虑城市气象预报的人工神经网络模型,以日为预报时段提供未来7 d的自动、滚动式径流预报.重点阐述了系统架构设计、业务逻辑设计、功能模块设计和程序开发过程中的关键技术问题.
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| 关 键 词： | 中长期水文预报 数理统计模型 人工神经网络 Java技术平台 B/S架构 |
Design and Development of Mid-and Long-Term Hydrological Forecast System in Fujian Powersystem |
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| ZHANG Shiqin ZHANG Jun CHENG Chuntian SHEN Jianjian.Design and Development of Mid-and Long-Term Hydrological Forecast System in Fujian Powersystem[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2008,26(6). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Shiqin ZHANG Jun CHENG Chuntian SHEN Jianjian |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Shiqin1 ZHANG Jun2 CHENG Chuntian2 SHEN Jianjian2(1.Fujian Electric Power Dispatching , Communication Center,Fuzhou 350003,China,2.School of Civil , Hydraulic Eng.,Dalian Univ.of Technology,Dalian 116024,China) |
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| Abstract: | A web-based and B/S structured software system for mid-and long-term hydrological forecast in Fujian powersystem is designed and developed,in which Java technology platform and Oracle cluster system are used.Long-term forecast and mid-term forecast are separated,several statistical models and frequency analysis are used in the former to forecast the runoff in future one year by month or by 1/3 month while artificial neural network model with consideration of city rainfall forecast is used in the later to ma... |
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| Keywords: | mid-and-long term hydrological forecast statistical model artificial neural network java technology platform B/S structure |
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