基于上-下游水电站协商定权的施工导流方案决策模型

基于上游水电站控泄的施工导流方案决策具有多目标性和双边冲突性特点。提出将上游水库汛限水位和下游水电工程施工导流标准的组合作为施工导流方案可行集，在建立方案综合评价指标体系的基础上，考虑水文、水力不确定性，利用Monte-Carlo方法估算各风险效益指标值。基于协商定权理论，将指标权重的分配作为决策过程中上-下游水电站之间冲突和争议的焦点，构筑冲突双方的协商定权局势，并将熵权引入到损失函数计算模型的构建中。工程实例分析表明，模型和方法是可行的、有效的，协商后的指标权重分配更加均衡与全面，反映了双方冲突的协调与解决，决策结果可靠，为上游水电站控泄条件下施工导流方案优选与风险调控提供新的思路和方法。

Decision Model of Construction Diversion Scheme Based on Bargaining Weigh Between Upstream and Downstream Hydropower Station

Scheme decision-making on the construction diversion based on discharge control of the upstream hydropower station is characterized by multi-objective and bilateral conflictive. The combination of the upstream reservoir limited water level and the downstream hydropower station construction diversion standard were used as diversion scheme set, comprehensive evaluation index system was established, considering the randomness of the hydrological and hydraulic, Monte-Carlo method was used to estimate every risk-performance evaluation index. Based on bargaining weight theory, the weight distribution was regarded as focus of conflict and dispute between upstream and downstream hydropower station in the decision process, a bargaining weigh situation was set up, and the improved entropy weight was introduced to establish loss function calculating model. Engineering case analysis show that this model and method are practical and effective, the weight distribution after negotiation is more balanced and overall, it also reflects the coordination and solving of conflict, decision results are reliable, this research provides new ideas and methods for scheme optimization and risk control of construction diversion with discharge control of the upstream hydropower station.