MTO生产模式的完工期预测及承诺交货期决策

在订单式生产的中小制造企业中，订单的完成过程受诸多不确定因素的影响。考虑影响完工期的确定因素及随机因素，如生产时间、插单的等待时间、机械故障等待时间、误工时间、损耗率及返工率等，根据数据统计分析假定各因素服从一定的随机分布，建立了完工期区间预测模型，通过多次仿真得到了完工期区间范围。以相关原则为依据，通过比较预测完工期及客户要求交货期，做出承诺交货期及价格决策。最后进行灵敏度分析，通过仿真得到完工期均值与各随机变量对应参数的变化关系，在此基础上提出了控制完工期影响因素的措施。

Order Completion Date Estimation and Due Date Decision under Make-to-Order Mode

Under make-to-order(MTO) environment,in the small-and-medium-size manufacturing enterprises,the order fulfillment is affected by many certain and random factors such as processing time variation,urgent order insertion,machine failure,scrap and rework,waiting,and so on.Based on the assumption that each random factor has a known stochastic distribution,a model of estimating the order completion date is developed.With this model,order completion date can be obtained by simulation.Then,by considering the customer’s delivery requirement,order due date and price can be determined.Also,sensitivity analysis is done to understand the interrelations among the mean order completion date and the uncertain factors.Finally,suggestions are given for how to control the uncertain factors.