电子元器件贮存可靠性评估与预测的贝叶斯方法

基于电子元件寿命试验的二项型数据信息,提出了电子元件贮存可靠性评估与预测的贝叶斯方法.利用环境因子将电子元件产品在不同贮存条件下的试验数据进行折合,依据贝叶斯理论对小样本下可能出现的数据"数据倒挂"进行预处理,并评估出其在各已知贮存时间点上的可靠度,再运用配曲线法得到产品的贮存寿命分布,进而对其贮存可靠度进行合理预测.最后,通过一个实例说明了方法的可行性.

Bayes Method of Assessing and Predicting Reliability of Electronic Components in Storage

Based on the binomial data of life tests of electronic components,Bayes method of assessing and predicting storage reliability is introduced. The method uses environment factors to syncretize the different data of the electronic components under variant storage conditions,disposes the tests data which are not ranked orderly and evaluates reliability of the product which has storied for some known time based on Bayes theory. By way of matching curve method,it gains the lifetime distribution of the product and predicts rightly storage reliability of the product in storage. Finally,an example was presented to illustrate the method.