Forecasting demand for low earth orbit mobile satellite service in Korea |
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Authors: | Jun Duk Bin Kim Seon K Park Myoung H Bae Moon S Park Yoon S Joo Young J |
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Affiliation: | (1) Graduate School of Management, KAIST, 207‐43 Cheongryangri‐Dong, Dongdaemun‐Gu, Seoul, 130‐012, Korea;(2) Hansung University, Korea;(3) ETRI, Taejon, Korea |
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Abstract: | Forecasting a new service diffusion process is critical in designing marketing strategies and analyzing the costs and benefits
for service providers. It is very difficult, however, in cases that data are not available. We suggest the combination of
analogy and survey to forecast the demand for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mobile satellite service in Korea. First, we analyze the
diffusion of existing mobile phone service, which is similar to LEO service. The diffusion parameters for mobile phone service
are then used in a model for LEO service. A survey was made on two hundred fifty‐five subscribers of existing mobile phone
service in Korea. We estimate the potential market size of LEO service by applying the logit model to the survey data. Then,
we forecast the annual demand for LEO service in Korea from 1998 to 2005. We also derive the price elasticity of market potential
of LEO service.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
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