考虑线路可变损耗和收益风险的峰谷分时电价模型对电网规划的影响

近些年随着峰谷分时电价在多个省份的实施,改变了原有的用户负荷特性,使峰、谷负荷差值逐渐缩小,对电网规划中的负荷预测产生了影响。因此,从峰谷分时电价对电网规划的影响出发,分析了峰谷分时电价对电网规划的影响,制定了考虑该影响的规划方案。其次,对峰谷分时电价模型进行优化,分析了线路可变损耗和收益风险对峰谷分时电价的影响,得到了负荷方差越小,线路可变损耗和收益风险越小的结论。优化后的模型考虑了线路可变损耗和收益风险对电网规划经济性和适用性的影响,对电网规划中的变电站容量规划和投资进行修正优化,使得电网规划中的容量规划和投资更加经济,合理。同时得到了最大负荷转移率是联系峰谷分时电价和电网规划的桥梁,传递着峰谷分时电价对电网规划的影响这一结论。最后,通过仿真分析,量化了峰谷分时电价对电网规划的影响程度,验证了文中采用的优化模型具有更好的适用性和准确性。

Impact of Peak-Valley TOU Price Model Considering Line Variable Loss and Revenue Risk on Power Grid Planning

In recent years, with the implementation of the TOU in several provinces, the original user load characteristics have been changed, the peak and valley load differences have been gradually reduced, and the load forecasting in power grid planning has been affected. Therefore, starting from the impact of TOU pricing on grid planning, this paper analyzes the impact of TOU pricing on grid planning and formulates a planning scheme that takes this into account. Secondly, this paper optimizes the TOU price model, analyzes the influence of variable line loss and return risk on the TOU price, and obtains the conclusion that the smaller the load variance is, the less the line variable loss and the return risk are. The optimized model considers the influence of line variable loss and return risk on the economics and applicability of grid planning. The capacity planning and investment in grid planning are modified and optimized to make capacity planning and investment in grid planning more economical, reasonable. At the same time, it is concluded that the maximum load transfer rate is a bridge connecting the TOU price and the power grid planning, and transmitting the impact of TOU price on the power grid planning. Finally, the simulation analysis proves the correctness of the theoretical analysis and quantifies the impact of peak-valley time-of-use price on power grid planning. It proves that the optimization model adopted in this paper has better applicability and accuracy.