用于油气勘探项目战略经济评价的实物期权法

用于项目经济评价的传统的净现值法本身具有一定的局限性,油气勘探项目又具有投资额大、周期长、技术工艺复杂、风险大的特点,因而净现值法在油气勘探项目的战略经济评价和投资决策中的应用存在很大的缺陷.它忽略了期权的价值,因此经常低估投资项目的真实价值,从而易导致错误的决策.本文将实物期权法引入油气勘探项目的风险投资决策中,系统地介绍了实物期权法的原理、特点和应用实例.实物期权法作为一种战略经济评价的新方法,它改变了过去人们对不确定性因素的看法,不再将不确定性因素作为消权的因素来看待,而是研究如何利用不确定性因素来获得更大的收益.

Real options method for strategic economic evaluation of oil and gas exploration project

The traditional net present value(NPV) method is widely used in strategic economic evaluation and investment decision of a project,but it has some defects,because of the limitation of the method and the distinct characters of an oil-gas exploration project(OGEP) such as large investment,long period to recover,complicated technology and high-level risks.So,the true values of an exploration project may be underestimated,and a wrong decision would be got using NPV method.A new method,namely real options method,is introduced.The theorem and the characters of this method are discussed here. An example to apply real options method to the economic evaluation of an OGEP is given.As a new method,real options method brings a great change to people′s opinions.The uncertainty of an object can be no longer taken as a negative factor.Instead,the people may focus on how to take the advantages of uncertainty and get more rewards.