综合E—Bayes估计船舶寿命的研究

为了研究船舶寿命和使用时的可靠度,提出了一种基于试验的可靠度估计方法.针对船舶寿命服从指数分布,根据船舶寿命试验数据,给出了在无失效数据情形下和引进失效信息后船舶失效率的E-Bayes估计,并在此基础上给出了船舶失效率的综合E-Bayes估计.通过对Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型船舶寿命无失效数据进行计算,得到了船舶寿命在无失效数据情形下和引进失效信息后船舶失效率的E-Bayes估计及综合E-Bayes估计.最后得到了Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型船舶寿命可靠度的综合E-Bayes估计.结果表明,综合E-Bayes估计适合船舶寿命可靠性的研究.

Estimating ship life spans using an integral E-Bayes method

To better estimate the service life of a ship,this paper proposes a method of reliability estimation on the basis of experiments.Assuming that the ship's life span satisfies an exponential distribution,E-Bayes estimation for ship failure rate in two cases were given: one case was for ships without failure information,and the other for ships with failure information.On this basis,an integral E-Bayes estimation for ship failure rate was developed.Following the estimations to Type I and Type II ship's life spans in the absence of failure information,an E-Bayes estimation and an integral E-Bayes estimation for ship failure rates were obtained respectively in the absence of and in the presence of failure data.As a result,integral E-Bayes estimation for reliability of ship life spans were finally gained.The results indicated that the integral E-Bayes estimation method is a useful tool for research of ship's reliability.