城市群体建筑物震害类比预测方法研究及应用

快速准确地预测城市建筑物在地震发生后的震害情况，对地震后的应急救灾起着至关重要的作用，文章对传统的城市建筑物震害类比法进行了优化，在对不同震害影响因素进行分析确定的基础上，通过模糊层次分析法分别对不同结构类型的不同影响因素设置不同的权重，突出了不同影响因素对结构抗震性能的影响，使预测的结果更加准确。运用Acess 建立了样本数据，使用优化的类比预测方法能够在较少的投资和较短的时间下，迅速给出城市的震害预测结果。并以某市高层建筑震害预测为例说明该方法的可靠性。

Application of Analogue Prediction for Seismic Damage of Urban Building Stocks

To deal with earthquake emergencies，it is important to fast predict the seismic damages after an earthquake. The paper improved the traditional analogue prediction method for seismic damage of buildings. First，the influencing factors of seismic damages were analyzed. Then the factor weighted the different structure types and determined through fuzzy analytic hierarchy process，which emphasizes the different structure seismic performance effect from different factors. Access database was established to represent and storage the sample data of seismic damages. The seismic damage prediction results can be provided by using the optimized analogue prediction method within limited cost and time. A case study of a high-rise building seismic damage prediction was conducted to show the reliability of this method.