| 年最大负荷的包络灰预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李晓梅 周晖 李冬梅. 年最大负荷的包络灰预测模型研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2004, 22(1): 66-69 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晓梅 周晖 李冬梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京交通大学,电气工程学院,北京,100044
2. 北京供电局,北京,100031 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据北京地区年最大负荷发生的特点，以1997～2002年年最大负荷数据为基础，采用包络灰预测的方法，建立了北京市年最大负荷的包络灰预测模型。通过与其他预测模型的比较，发现所建包络灰预测模型更具合理性和可行性，可以满足现场的实际需要。
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| 关 键 词： | 年最大负荷 包络灰预测模型 灰色区间预测 GM（1，1）模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7709(2003)04-0066-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-10-30 |
Study of Grey Wrapping Prediction Model for Yearly Peak Load |
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| LI Xiao-meiZHOU HuiLI Dong-mei. Study of Grey Wrapping Prediction Model for Yearly Peak Load[J]. International Journal Hydroelectric Energy, 2004, 22(1): 66-69 |
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| Authors: | LI Xiao-meiZHOU HuiLI Dong-mei |
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| Affiliation: | LI Xiao-mei~1ZHOU Hui~1LI Dong-mei~2 |
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| Abstract: | With the rapid growth of yearly peak loads in Beijing, the issue of prediction for yearly peak load had already caught great attention of electric utility. Based on the data of yearly peak load between 1997 and 2002, in this paper Grey wrapping prediction model for yearly peak load had been built according to the occurring characteristic of yearly peak load in Beijing. In comparison with other model, we find that the Grey wrapping prediction model which can meet the practical requirement of electric utility is more reasonable and feasible. Therefore, the Grey wrapping prediction model for yearly peak load gives electric utility some important references to make power load operation schedules, such as arranging properly switching or reserve planning of generation, transmission and distribution systems. |
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| Keywords: | yearly peak load grey wrapping prediction model grey interval predictions model GM(1 1) |
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