改进风险矩阵及其在某型装备采办风险评价中的应用

为规避装备采办各阶段特别是研制阶段的风险，将改进风险矩阵用于某新型手榴弹采办的研制阶段风险评估中。从性能风险、费用风险和进度风险3个方面，对某新型手榴弹采办风险评价指标体系的建立进行论述。邀请风险评估专家小组进行该型号手榴弹采办研制阶段的风险评估，结合专家组给出的直接结果，计算出该阶段各种风险的风险影响序值、风险概率序值、Borda数，然后确定出Borda序值、风险等级尺度等信息，进而确定出该型号采办论证阶段的风险总水平、每种风险的风险贡献率，最终获得影响该型号装备研制的最大风险因素。

Improved Risk Matrix and Its Application in Acquisition Risk Assessment of Certain Type Military Equipment

In order to avoid the risk of all stages of military equipment acquisition,especially the development stage,the improved risk matrix is used assessing the developing stage’s risk of certain new hand grenade acquisition.The establishment of new hand grenade acquisition risk judging indicators is discussed from the following three aspects: performance risk,expense risk and progress risk.Risk assessment expert-group is invited to assess the developing stage’s risk of the hand grenade acquisition;and with the combination of the direct result given by expert-group,every risks’ ordered value,risk frequency ordered value and Borda value of developing stage’s risk effect are figured out,the information about Borda ordered value and risk grade scale are then acquired.The total risk level and every risks’ contributing percentage in the stage of development of this hand grenade are then figured out.Finally the biggest risk factors,which have profound effects on this equipments’ development,are given out.