基于出行时间预算的有限理性出行者路网均衡模型

为研究有限理性出行者逐日出行中出发时刻及路径调整的出行行为,引入前景理论,分析出行者依据最大准点到达概率来选择出行时间预算,将此出行时间预算作为到达参考点,进而在给定参考点下选择前景值最大的路径出行,并利用前次流量分配结果调整下次出行时间预算,经过多次出行达到路网流量平衡及准点到达概率最大的稳定状态。基于出行时间预算和前景理论建立了双层模型进行路网逐日均衡配流,用遗传算法求解最佳出行时间预算,用相继平均法计算路径平衡流量。最后基于算例验证模型和算法,并设定不同的出行选择机制分析出行时间预算、路径前景值及准点到达概率三者间的博弈关系。

A road network equilibrium model of bounded rational travelers based on time budget

In order to analyze travelers’ departure time and route adjustment behavior under bounded rationality, we introduce the prospect theory to describe route choice behavior. Travel behavior is assumed to obey the mechanisms as follows: commuters make a travel time budget according to the maximum punctual arrival probability firstly, set it as the reference point, and then calculate the prospect value of each alternative path and select the path with the maximum prospect value as the travel path. Commuters adopt travel information to adjust the departure time for the next travel. A steady state can thus be achieved after repeated trips. We establish a bi-level user equilibrium model in this paper based on the travel time budget and the prospect theory, and employ the methods of successive average and genetic algorithm to solve the model. In the end, an example is used to test the model and the algorithm. We also analyze the relationship among time budget, route prospect and punctual arrival probability under three different choice rules.