基于ISM和D-S证据理论的脚手架坍塌致因诊断

为有效预防脚手架坍塌事故,综合运用解释结构模型(ISM)与D-S证据理论,提出脚手架坍塌事故致因诊断方法。筛选主要事故致因指标,采用ISM方法抽象致因指标间的关系,构建脚手架坍塌事故致因指标梯阶层次结构;搭建事故致因指标识别框架,结合致因影响程度等级评价值,确定证据源,建立事故致因指标基本信度分配函数;运用证据融合规则合成专家信息,量化脚手架事故坍塌致因影响程度,诊断事故关键致因。结合实例,对云南某水电站高边坡施工现场脚手架坍塌事故进行致因分析。结果表明:违章作业是主要事故直接原因;设计错误、无资质施工是主要事故间接原因;安全责任制度不健全是主要事故深层根本原因。研究结果与实际相符,验证了该方法的可靠性。

Diagnosis of causes of scaffold collapse based on ISM and D-S evidence theory

In order to prevent scaffold collapse, ISM and D-S evidence theory are used to analyze the causes of collapse accident.Firstly, the main cause indexes of the accident are selected and ladder structure of the cause indexes are established by ISM that can realize abstraction of the cause indexes.Then, the source of evidence is determined by building the framework for the identification of cause indexes.The basic probability assignment functions of cause indexes are obtained after the influential degree of causes are confirmed.finally, the evidence fusion rule is used to synthesize the expert's information and quantify the influential degree of the cause indexes, so the key cause is determined.The proposed method is applied to the cause analysis of the scaffold collapse at the construction site of high slope in a hydropower station in Yunnan Province.The results show that violated operation is the main direct cause;the design error and unqualified construction are the indirect cause;the imperfect safety responsibility system is the in-depth cause.The results are in agreement with the actual facts, which verifies reliability of the method.