鄱阳湖流域水分盈亏时空变化特征分析

根据1960~2014年鄱阳湖流域13个气象站点的气象资料,采用FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和相关分析法,研究鄱阳湖流域水分盈亏量时空分布变化趋势及其与气象因子的关系。研究结果表明:鄱阳湖流域近55 a来水分盈亏量多年平均盈余为565.88 mm,空间上呈由西北向东北和由西南向东北逐渐递增的趋势;水分盈亏量年内分布呈秋季亏缺,其他季节盈余,水分盈余量表现为春季夏季冬季秋季;在研究时段内流域各地水分盈余量均呈增加趋势,但各季节水分盈余量变化存在一定的差异性,其中春季和秋季呈减少趋势,但趋势不明显,而夏季和冬季均呈显著的增加趋势(p0.05)。鄱阳湖流域水分盈亏量与降雨、日照时数和日最高气温关系密切,流域年水分盈余量的增加是由于夏季和冬季降水量的增加、日照数和风速的减少。

Spatial and temporal variations of water budget in Poyang Lake watershed

Based on the meteorological data of 13 stations in Poyang lake watershed from 1960 to 2014, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of seasonal and annual water budget and its influential meteorological factors were analyzed with Penman-Monteith equation recommended by FAO, Mann-Kendall statistical method and correlational analysis method. The results show that the annual average water surplus is 565.88 mm, which shows a gradually increasing distribution from southwest to northeast and northwest to northeast; in the annual scale, the water budget is deficit in autumn and surplus in other seasons, especially, the seasonal water surplus value showing a descending order of spring, summer, winter, and autumn. The water surplus quantity increases in the watershed throughout the study period, however, the seasonal water surpluses have some differences. In particular, water surplus displays a slight downward trend in spring and autumn and there is a significantly upward trend in summer and winter (p< 0.05). The relationship between water budget and rainfall, sunshine hours, daily maximum temperature are very close. The increasing cause of annual water surplus is the increase of summer and winter rainfall and the decrease of sunshine hours and wind speed.