城市地下物流的货物种类及需求预测方法研究

地下物流系统是通过自动运输技术与地下隧道或管道相结合,利用地下空间进行货物运输的新模式。在城市地下物流系统规划中,明确系统服务的货物品类,预测地下物流货运需求量十分重要,然而目前新模式下的运输单元、货物品类、货运量等尚不明确。本文首先是分析适应城市地下物流系统的运输制式,再根据运输制式与其他运输方式的接驳,制定城市地下物流系统的运输单元,然后依据运输单元规格对进入城市地下物流系统的货物品类进行分类和筛选,最后用两种不同维度的预测方法:地区生产总值GDP与货运量的关系,以及人均消费量与货运量的关系预测地下物流货运量,并通过算例验证。本文分析了城市地下物流运输制式、运输单元、货物品类,同时提供了城市地下物流系统货运量的需求预测方法,以期为城市地下物流系统的发展及规划提供有价值的研究基础。

Types of Goods Suitable for Urban Underground Logistics and Research on Demand Forecasting Method

Underground logistics system is a new mode of cargo transportation by using underground space through the combination of automatic transportation technology and underground tunnel or pipeline. In the planning of urban underground logistics system, it is very important to define the categories of goods served by the system and to predict the demand of underground logistics freight. However, the transportation unit, categories and volume of freight under the new mode are not clear. Firstly, this paper analyzed the transportation system that adapted to the urban underground logistics system. And then, according to the connection between the transportation system and other transportation modes, this paper formulated the transportation unit of the urban underground logistics system, and classified and selected the goods entering the urban underground logistics system according to the specifications of the transportation unit. Finally, this paper used two different forecasting methods: the relationship between GDP and freight volume, and the relationship between per capita consumption and freight volume that predicted the freight volume of underground logistics, which was verified by an example. This paper analyzes the transport system, transport unit and goods category of urban underground logistics, and provides the demand forecasting method of urban underground logistics system, in order to provide valuable research basis for the development and planning of Urban underground logistics system.