Modelling systemic change in coupled socio-environmental systems |
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Affiliation: | 1. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2b, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden;2. National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), 1 Park Place, Suite 300, Annapolis, MD 21401, USA;3. School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, PO Box 875502, AZ 85287-5502, Tempe, USA;4. UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Ecological Modelling, Permoser Str. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany;5. Institute of Forest Growth and Forest Computer Science, Technische Universitaet Dresden, PO Box 1117, 01735 Tharandt, Germany;6. University College Groningen, Hoendiepskade 23-24, 9718 BG Groningen, The Netherlands;7. CSIRO, PO Box 2583, Brisbane Q 4001, Australia;8. UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoser Str. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany |
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Abstract: | Abrupt systemic changes in ecological and socio-economic systems are a regular occurrence. While there has been much attention to studying systemic changes primarily in ecology as well as in economics, the attempts to do so for coupled socio-environmental systems are rarer. This paper bridges the gap by reviewing how models can be instrumental in exploring significant, fundamental changes in such systems. The history of modelling systemic change in various disciplines contains a range of definitions and approaches. Even so, most of these efforts share some common challenges within the modelling context. We propose a framework drawing these challenges together, and use it to discuss the articles in this thematic issue on modelling systemic change in coupled social and environmental systems. The differing approaches used highlight that modelling systemic change is an area of endeavour that would benefit from greater synergies between the various disciplines concerned with systemic change. |
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Keywords: | Regime shift Shock Vocabulary Ontology Feedbacks Complexity |
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